Your backtest says it works. I find what it’s hiding — before live money does.
From a real forensic: 17 reports on my own live system — $80.46 lost in six weeks, and $4 of it was execution.
Most backtests don’t fail live because the idea was bad. They fail because of what the backtest couldn’t show: costs modeled at a fraction of the real ones, a lookahead leak, a universe that quietly excludes the delisted losers, or a result that only exists because it was the best of 400 tries. I know, because I ran the full forensic on my own live system after it lost money for six straight weeks.
LIVE SYSTEM — FORENSIC RECONSTRUCTION/17 REPORTSEQUITY CURVE · CLAIMED vs ACTUAL
What the backtest claimedWhat live money didWhere the forensic starts
17
forensic reports on one live system
$80.46
lost in six weeks, fully reconciled
$4
of that loss was execution
z −3.2
symbol picks vs random (worse)
01
The sample: my own system, opened up
Before this audit was a product, it was an autopsy. I ran the full forensic on my own live system after six straight weeks of losses — 17 reports, every fill reconciled against the exchange. The verdict surprised me: exits were innocent, execution cost about $4 of an $80.46 loss. This is what the method found.
01
Winners that still closed red
POSITION LIFECYCLE
81% of closed positions were up at least +100bp at some point; half of those still closed at a loss.
02
Exit rules, exhaustively replayed
236 VARIANTS · 5 YEARS
Across 236 exit-rule variants replayed over 5 years, only one nominally beat doing nothing; the median destroyed 63% of terminal wealth.
03
Execution — acquitted
COST ATTRIBUTION
Execution cost ≈ $4 total — acquitted. The usual suspect didn’t do it.
04
What actually killed it
THE KILLERS
The killers: 3× long exposure into a −22% alt month, and holds over 10 days (−$73.95).
05
Reconciled to the exchange
FILL BY FILL
Every fill reconciled against the exchange; residual 0.37 USDT on the whole window.
VERDICT
Exits were innocent and execution was ≈$4 of an $80.46 loss — the killers were 3× long exposure in a falling market and symbol picks that scored worse than random (z −3.2). That audit is the template for yours.
02
What you get: the Autopsy, check by check
A written forensic report on your backtest — the same six checks, in the same order, that produced the findings above.
CHECK 01
Reconciliation
Do your trades actually reproduce your claimed equity curve, fill by fill?
CHECK 02
Cost & slippage realism
Your cost model vs what your instruments really charge; what 2× and 5× costs do to the result.
CHECK 03
Lookahead & data-integrity checks
Signal timing, bar leakage, corporate-action and data-age traps.
CHECK 04
Universe & survivorship check
Who is missing from your test, and whether they were the losers.
CHECK 05
Overfitting & statistical validation
Trial count, selection effects, deflated expectations; is the edge distinguishable from luck?
CHECK 06 · THE VERDICT
Verdict: Pass / Fix / Kill
With the fixes ranked by measured effect, not opinion.
PASSFIXKILL
03
How it works
Any platform — if it can export a trade list, it can be audited.
1
You submit
Your trade list (CSV or platform export), your equity curve, a short strategy description, and the cost assumptions you used.
2
The forensic runs
Your report lands within 7 days of a complete submission — all six checks, with the evidence behind every finding.
3
You question it
One written clarification round is included — ask me anything about the findings.
Only 2 audits run at a time. When both slots are full, this listing pauses until one clears.
Founding cohort — why $149
The first 3 audits are priced to build the public track record. In exchange, I ask (a) a short testimonial if the audit earns it, and (b) your written permission to publish an anonymized teardown.
Both are your choice; the audit is yours either way. After the founding cohort, the price moves to $249–$299.
Backtest Honesty Checklist buyers: your $14 is credited toward the price.
The method, in your hands: a structured way to document your assumptions and find reasons to stop or investigate further — before committing real capital.
The Playbook — the four gates in order, with kill criteria and a fully worked example
The Worksheets — one per gate, plus the Final Verdict Scorecard
The Cost-Model Spreadsheet — round-trip toll, net edge, and a 2×-cost stress test with an automatic verdict
A forensic audit of your backtest, done for you. The checklist is the method in your hands; the Autopsy is me running the full forensic on your numbers.
All six checks, run on your trade list and equity curve
Written report within 7 days, verdict included
One clarification round — and your $14 credited if you bought the Checklist